Into the Fire: Colts vs. Pats

(thefadedraider)

Last week Colts' QB Andrew Luck defeated his predecessor in a game that heralded the passing of the torch. This week Luck is faced with an even greater challenge: he will meet Tom Brady in New England with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

The Patriots will be appearing in their ninth conference championship game during the Brady/Belichick Era. Brady is seeking his NFL-record sixth Super Bowl appearance, while Luck has never advanced past the current round.

In three seasons in the NFL, Andrew Luck has managed to advance one round further in each year. In his rookie season he was eliminated in the wildcard round by Baltimore; in his second, he orchestrated a magnificent win against Kansas City before losing to New England. This year, he made it through the Bengals and the Broncos and now faces the Patriots for the second consecutive postseason.

In their last meeting, RB Jonas Gray finished with 37 rushes, 201 yards, 4 TDs
(Joe Robbins / Getty Images)

The pattern suggests that it may be one more year before Andrew Luck and the Colts reach the Super Bowl. Unfortunately for Luck, statistical history does not disagree.


In three previous meetings, Andrew Luck has passed for six touchdowns and eight interceptions, but it has been Indianapolis' porous defense that has prevented them from winning any of the match-ups.

The scores tell the story:

59-24, New England.
43-22, Pats.
42-20, Brady.

In the Andrew Luck era, the Colts defense has given up an average of 48 points per game, while the offense manages just 22. Brady has thrown 5 TDs to just 2 INTs, but has not needed to do much to lead his team to victory-- Indianapolis has been horrible against the run.

In their past two match-ups alone, the Colts have allowed 480 yards on the ground and 10 rushing touchdowns. Each game saw a different Patriots' running back go for 4 TDs: LeGarrette Blunt and Jonas Gray. Both of those RBs are on the current roster. In the last matchup, Gray alone rushed for over 200 yards.

This year Indianapolis is ranked 22nd against the run in the league, allowing an average of 100.8 yards-per-game in the regular season. Their two postseason performances have been right in line with their average.

(Jim Rogash / Getty Images)

The good news: that is less than half the average amount allowed against the Patriots!

The bad news: Andy Dalton is not Tom Brady.

Neither, we can emphatically conclude, is Peyton Manning.


Stopping the run means forcing the throw, and if there ever was a QB up for the task, it was Brady. In fact, last week against the Ravens, the Patriots threw 51 pass attempts, compared to just 13 rushes (including the kneel-downs), and finished with over 400 passing yards and 4 passing touchdowns.


All signs point to the Patriots emerging victorious in the AFC Championship game, but Luck and the Colts have proven to be anything but conventional. They will need their young quarterback, and the quality he represents, to show up in spades if they hope to advance.

End of an Era?

(denverbroncos.com)

After another disappointing playoff loss, is it time for Peyton Manning to hang up his helmet once and for all?

Manning was released from the Colts in 2012 following a spinal fusion surgery that caused him to miss the entire 2011 season. There was much debate then about whether or not he would be able to return to form, but the Denver Broncos were willing to take the risk and offered the then 35-year-old Manning a 5-year, $96 million dollar deal.

In three years in Denver, Manning has led the team to three consecutive AFC West titles and compiled a regular season record of 38-10. He was named the League MVP in 2013-- his fifth such award-- and broke records for touchdowns and passing yards in a single season on the way to his third career Super Bowl appearance.

Unfortunately for Manning, his regular season accomplishments have long been overshadowed by his postseason shortcomings. His record-breaking 2013 season ended in a 43-8 trouncing at the hands of the Seahawks, and he sandwiched the embarrassing Super Bowl defeat with two more "one-and-done" appearances in 2012 and 2014. He has nine such playoff exits-- a record among quarterbacks-- and now has a career 11-13 postseason record.

(Justin Edmons / Getty Images)

This past season was about as typical as it gets for Peyton Manning, for he mastered another record-breaking regular season (Manning broke the record for career touchdown passes) and still managed to be outplayed and upset at home in his one postseason game, sparking the rumors and whisperings that his perennial career may be nearing its end.

Of course, he did nothing to help his own case. In an interview after the 24-13 loss to the Colts, Manning was asked about his future and whether or not he would be returning next season.

His response:

"I can't say that. I could not say that."

In avoiding that answer, Manning displayed an evasive quality that he has simply lost on the field. He was never a "mobile quarterback", but of late he has looked mechanical and algorithmic. Without an ability to create and improvise after the snap he must rely on his pre-snap reads and on his ability to get the ball to his receivers. While his mind is fine and probably as sharp as ever, there is no question his arm-strength is a huge weakness to his game.

In the playoff loss, Manning went 2-12 on passes that travelled more than 15 yards in the air. Viewers at home watched many deep ball attempts fall harmlessly short or out of bounds. With no ability to go deep, and no ability to throw the ball outside the numbers, the defenses are having more success than ever against the aging quarterback.

Since the loss a few items have come to light that answer some questions and invariably lead to others.

First, it was revealed that Manning played the playoff game-- and the last three games of the regular season-- with a torn quadricep muscle that would have ruled most other players out.

Second, there seems to have been some dysfunction among the coaching ranks, as John Fox and the organization "mutually agreed" to part ways, just one day after the loss.

Said Elway of the coaching change:

"While we have made significant progress under Coach Fox, there is still work to be done. I believe this change at the head coaching position will be in the best interest of our long-term goal, which from day one has been to win world championships." 


What this means for Manning's return-- and for the rest of the coaching staff-- is very much an open book at this point. Elway's discontent seemed to spring from the lackluster finish, and one would assume that because the Coach took the heat that the quarterback would be safe. Denver's offensive and defensive coordinators are both interviewing elsewhere as this is published, and Del Rio is rumored to be very close to a deal with the Raiders.

If there is wholesale change to the coaching staff, it must be a good fit for Manning. But is Manning healthy enough to return and lead the team back to the playoffs?

Is there a coach out there that can take over this team without losing any momentum? Is a quarterback at the twilight of his career worth basing your entire coaching staff around?

These questions are just a few that loom over the franchise as they come to a fork in the road. John Elway should waste no time getting a staff in order, but his coaching decisions come down to Peyton Manning's decision, and it did not seem like Manning was ready to make it anytime soon.

In the meantime, Elway and his Broncos can sit back and watch the remainder of the playoffs and the nonstop press coverage on Manning and his future. There will be many pundits and anchors with opinions and criticisms, but one sound will be more alarming than even the harshest assessments.

Tick-tock. Tick-tock. 

The clock is certainly ticking on Peyton Manning.

(Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)

2014 Playoff Preview: Wildcard Round

http://fansided.com/

The regular season is over and the playoff standings are set! Here are some quick notes on the teams and match ups for the Wildcard Round:

Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)

Saturday, Jan. 3, 1:20 PM PST, ESPN

http://raisingzona.com/

Back in the postseason for the first time since Kurt Warner retired, the Arizona Cardinals hope to make a run despite injuries to their first and second string quarterbacks. The Cardinals lost starter Carson Palmer in Week 10 to a torn ACL and backup Drew Stanton played well in his absence, leading the team to three more important wins before spraining both his MCL and ACL in Week 15. Arizona then lost its final two games of the season-- and its division lead-- Ryan Lindley under center. Lindley is expected to start.

Meanwhile the Carolina Panthers emerged as division champs from the mediocre scrum that was the NFC South. Carolina will be just the third team in NFL history to make the playoffs with a losing record, and first since Seattle in 2010. The team went seven weeks without a win but managed to pull out the last four games of the season, including a 34-3 thrashing of the Falcons last week to seal the division. The Panthers will look to carry their momentum forward and remind fans that, despite their lackluster record, they are back to back champions of the NFC South for the first time in franchise history.

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

Saturday, Jan. 3, 5:15 PM PST, NBC

http://darkroom.baltimoresun.com/

Christmas was last week but here is one extra special present left untouched under the tree:

Ravens. Steelers. Playoffs.

Though the names and faces have changed throughout the years, both teams carry on the long-standing tradition of hard-hitting, smash mouth football that makes this one of the NFL's best rivalries. Bragging rights are important, but now these teams will fight for the right to play on, and the loser will go home just as sore but with more time to recover.

The status of LeVeon Bell will be monitored closely this week, as the Steelers' leading rusher was injured last week in the win over the Bengals. He would be extremely useful to a team going up against the 4th ranked rushing defense in the NFL.

Baltimore has been playing all season without Ray Rice, but Justin Forsett has stepped up and is coming off a fantastic season-- rushing for over 1200 yards and 8 touchdowns. Joe Flacco will look to have a day against a Pittsburgh defense ranked 27th against the pass, as the Ravens' passing game has been middling all season long. That translates to lots of running for Steve Smith Sr., Baltimore's leading receiver, and likely just as much running for Steve Smith's mouth.

Look for more passing than you are accustomed to seeing when these two foes face off, but expect the intensity to be the same that you know and treasure, as I do.

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

Sunday, Jan. 4, 10:05 AM PST, CBS

wcpo.com

The Indianapolis Colts had the quietest dominant season that I personally can remember. Somehow the team managed to fly under the radar, avoiding any and all major headlines, on the way to their third 11-5 record in as many years. Each has been under the tutelage of Andrew Luck, who has appeared in the postseason every year of his professional career, and who is coming off a 4,700 yard passing season with 40 touchdowns and just 16 interceptions. And yet here we are, unsurprised and unimpressed and talking about every other undeserving headline.

Speaking of undeserving, the Cincinnati Bengals rank 20th against the pass, 20th against the rush, and 21st in passing offense, yet earned second place in the division and just whiffed on the championship by losing to Pittsburgh last week. AJ Green has been battling injuries all season long and was unable to finish each of the past two games with arm injuries and a concussion, respectively. Andy Dalton has been his typical red-roller-coaster self and would certainly appreciate seeing his favorite target on the field and healthy on Sunday. The lone bright spot for the Bengals has been rookie running back Jeremy Hill, who averaged just seven carries through the first seven games before taking over the first string duties and finishing with over 1,100 yards rushing. Cincinnati will try to exploit the weakness in the Colts' run defense (ranked 22nd in the league) and will look to avoid a repeat of their last trip to Lucas Oil Stadium: a 27-0 beat down back in October.

Detroit Lions (11-5) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4)

Sunday, Jan. 4, 1:40 PM PST, FOX

detroitlions.com

The Dallas Cowboys are back in the postseason for the first time since 2009. A potent offensive attack features the NFL's leading rusher-- DeMarco Murray-- and the deadly Dez Bryant, who both led the league and broke the franchise record for receiving touchdowns in a single season.

They will face a Detroit Lions defense that is ranked #1 against the run and #3 overall in points allowed. However, the Lions will be without two of their best run-stoppers: Nick Fairly has been out since Week 8 with a knee injury, and Ndamukong Suh has been suspended for the game following the second stomp scandal of his dubious career. Both defensive tackles were first-round picks.


Full Analysis to Follow...

Identity Crisis in Indy

Latest Win Raises Eyebrows

A win is a win... or is it?

They dress in blue and white. They come from Indianapolis. Their mascot is a horse and their running back might be too.

But who are the Indianapolis Colts?

Are they the true Super Bowl favorite of the AFC? Or are they just a good team riding a great high?

Last night the Colts fell behind the Texans 21-3. They were badly outplayed by a 2-5 team for the entire first half. Their defense allowed 190 receiving yards in the first half (to a single player!) and gave up a 62-yard touchdown bomb on the third play of the game. Their offense struggled mightily, earning only 138 total yards in the first two quarters, and their first five drives resulted in four punts and a blocked FG attempt.

The only scoring drive they mustered in the first half came via a 46-yard pass interference call. Luck went deep to Heyward-Bey on the first play of the drive, and the penalty put the ball inside the ten yard line (unfair, because he would have dropped the ball no matter what). From there, the Colts offense gained one yard before moving backward and being forced to settle for a short FG.

These are the same Colts who upset a Super-Bowl favorite Denver team in the homecoming of Indianapolis' prodigal son (prodigal quarterback?), Peyton Manning. This is a team that had already grinded out victories against the NFC Super Bowl favorites as well, spanking the Niners IN San Francisco and defeating Seattle at Lucas Oil Stadium just two weeks after.

Yet here they were, coming off their bye-week and down big at halftime to a Houston team that had lost five straight. The Texans were starting a third-string quarterback and were without pro-bowl RB Arian Foster (who suited up but recorded zero touches during the game). Also, Texans head coach Gary Kubiak was taken to the hospital at halftime and did not even coach the second-half. (Shout out to Coach Kubiak, hoping for his good health.)

And still the first-place Colts found themselves down by three scores after thirty minutes of play.

It seems like someone in the Colts' locker room raised the question at the break, because they came out ready to play in the second half. They took their first possession 41 yards for a FG, then followed that with three straight touchdown drives of 78, 67, and 52 yards, respectively. Their only punt in the second half came with under a minute to go in the fourth quarter.

To be fair, that punt came at a crucial part of the game. They were unable to get a first down and eat the clock, and instead had to give the ball back to Houston, down just three points, with enough time to get in position for a game-tying field-goal attempt. Randy Bullock pulled the kick (one of his three misses on the day) and the Colts escaped Texas with a narrow victory.

So here is what we know about the Colts:

This year, four of their victories have come with an average margin of 4.75 points. (I'm discounting the Jags in that statistic, as well as the 49ers, to both bulk up the stat and humiliate San Fran by association). They squeaked out some nail-biters against Denver, Houston, and Seattle, and were a Terrelle Pryor interception in the endzone away from being upset by the Raiders in their own stadium.

They fell behind 14-3 in their Week 2 loss to the Dolphins (by just 4 points) and failed to score a touchdown in their loss to San Diego. Neither of those teams are above .500.

Last year, the Colts went 11-5 and made the playoffs. Their margin of victory in 2012 (if I again discount the Jags, who they have outscored 64-13 in their past two meetings) was a mere 5.1 points per win, and only 3 of the 11 wins came against teams that made the playoffs. (By the way, the Jags managed to beat the Colts in Week 3 of last year for one of their TWO victories that year. That makes Jacksonville 2-22 in the last two seasons.)

In that span, QB Andrew Luck has 10 game-winning drives-- an NFL record for the first two seasons, and this one is only halfway through. And with their habit of playing down to lesser teams and coming from behind to win, you can expect to see a few more of these before the postseason.

However, the Colts will need to get their act together long before the playoffs arrive. They cannot afford to fall behind early. Good teams will not let them rally late in the game. They will certainly not stop scoring inexplicably, like the Houston Texans did last night.

Let's not forget the playoffs last year. A magical run ended in Baltimore as the Colts were trounced by the Ravens in the first round. In that game, they only entered the red zone once, and again failed to find the end zone.

Sometimes the Colts are able to rally and escape with a last-minute victory. But this is not a strategy they should count on if they hope to make a serious playoff push.

To their credit, the Colts have lost two starting running backs to season-ending injuries, as well as their star receiver Reggie Wayne to a torn ACL, yet they have shown no signs of collapse (see Falcons, Atlanta).

Richardson has yet to make an impact

Part of this was offset by the immediate trade for third-overall pick, and Heisman runner-up, Trent Richardson. However, the running back has been largely unable to produce for the Colts, and has yet to surpass 60 rushing yards in a game this year. Last night, he was held to 20 yards on 8 carries, bringing him to a season average of 3.1 yards per carry-- 44th in the league!

This only leads to more questions: When will their running game be effective? And what will their offense look like when it does?

If it does come around, they can add balance and dimension to their attack. They can control the football, dictate the tempo, and open up a dangerous passing game. Last year, Luck broke the record for passing yards by a rookie with 4,374. This year, he is paced for only 3,690.

At 6-2, the Colts are ahead in their division by 2 full games. Only two of their remaining opponents currently have winning records, and Indianapolis looks poised to enter the playoffs as winners of the AFC South. However, if they do not get the ground game going and figure out a way to maintain a close score, they will find themselves falling short of their ultimate dream: a trip to Jersey in February.

For now, they find their Super Bowl hopes embedded completely in one concept, "Luck", both the player and the principle.