5 Reasons Why the Cowboys Will Win on Sunday

nfl.com

Sunday's first game is the NFC matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers. The Packers will host the game at Lambeau Field as the winners of the NFC North and the #2 seed in the conference. The Cowboys finished with the same record as Green Bay, but the Packers won the tie-breaker (and thus, a bye week and the right to host this game) based on win percentage against conference teams. Dallas fans can look back on their overtime loss to Washington's backup QB Colt McCoy as the reason this game is not being played in Arlington, Texas. However, the Cowboys might prefer to travel instead, as their record on the road is a perfect 8-0, and they went just 4-4 at home during the regular season.

This time they travel to the Frozen Tundra (expected to be an easy 20 degrees) and face off against a team that has not lost at home all season.

This game has all the makings of an instant classic and is not one to be missed by even the fair-weather NFL fan. It pits two of the top offenses in the league against one another, and both franchises are desperate to return to the Super Bowl. Dallas has not been to the championship since 1995, while Green Bay has gone 1-3 in the playoffs since winning the 2010 championship. Two of those losses came at home.

There are plenty of statistics and facts that can tip the scales in favor of one team or the other, but I believe that the Dallas Cowboys will emerge victorious.

Here are five reasons why:

1. Aaron Rodgers is Not Fully Healthy

(source)

Aaron Rodgers left his Week 17 game against the Lions with an injured calf and was watching helplessly from the locker room as Detroit drove down field and tied the game. A victory would mean a first-round bye for the Packers, and Rodgers would not let this opportunity slip by. With a wrap on his calf and a grimace on his face, Rodgers would return to lead the Packers to a 30-20 win that secured their spot as the #2 seed and ensured the bye week.

While initial reports told of a strained calf, it was revealed this week that Rodgers actually has a small tear in his calf muscle. He has said he will play in the game, but unanimous opinion is that he will not be 100%, and may even be much farther than the most generous estimates. One doctor put that range anywhere between 95% and 50%.

Any team without a fully healthy starting QB is at a disadvantage in any game. The impact is obviously magnified in the playoffs (just ask Arizona!). But this injury to Rodgers is especially threatening because he has accounted for nearly 75% of the Packers' total offense this season. Rodgers passed for over 4300 yards this season and ran for 269 more.

Even if Rodgers comes in a 75% healthy, mathematics tells us that 75% of 75% is only 56%, which would drop the Packers' offensive capacity to 81%, assuming their running game performs at 100% against a team that has not allowed a 100-yard rusher since Thanksgiving.

For comparison, Tony Romo accounts for just 61% of his team's total offense-- the lowest of any QB remaining in the playoffs.

2. Dallas' Strength on the Ground

A good reason why Tony Romo accounts for less offense is the emergence of the Dallas running game, led by the league's leading rusher, DeMarco Murray. This season Murray rushed for 1845 total yards and beat the 100-yard mark in twelve of sixteen games.

profootbalfocus.com

The last time he played against Green Bay he went for 134 and a touchdown.

The strength of the running game has led to more opportunities in the passing game, especially with the explosive Dez Bryant on the outside, and a more balanced attack overall. This has helped alleviate the pressure on Tony Romo, and there is no shortage of pressure on the quarterback of America's team.

3. Defense Wins Championships

Romo has also benefitted from a much improved defense. Despite losing DeMarcus Ware to Denver and LB Sean Lee to another ACL tear, Dallas has been one of the best run-stopping defenses in the league. They ranked 8th in the league during the regular season, and have been playing exceptionally well down the stretch.

The Cowboys' defense has played very well this year, except when they
blatantly commit pass interference penalties with the game on the line... (source)

Here are their stats from December and January:

Total rushing yards allowed, by team:

Washington Redskins: 104
Philadelphia Eagles: 75
Chicago Bears: 35
Indianapolis Colts: ONE YARD!
Detroit Lions: 90

They are undefeated during that stretch.

4. Revenge is a Dish Best Served... Frozen

nextimpulsesports.com

These two franchises have long and storied histories in the league. It has been over 47 years, however, since they have faced off in the playoffs.

December 31, 1967.

The Ice Bowl.

csnbayarea.com

On a day when the temperature was minus 13 degrees, with a wind chill of minus 46, the Green Bay Packers defeated the Dallas Cowboys at Lambeau field for the NFL Championship. QB Bart Star took the ball into the endzone with 13 seconds to go for the go-ahead score, and the Packers defeated the Cowboys 21-17.

The game would go down as one of the most memorable in history, not only for the temperature but for the competition as well.

There may not be an active player on either roster that was alive for the game, but you can bet the history has been passed down, and the Cowboys will be out to avenge the ghosts of their forefathers.

5. What's Good for the Dallas Cowboys is Good for America

Lastly, and most cynically, is the fact that Jerry Jones' franchise is worth 3.2 billion dollars, most of any NFL team for the 8th consecutive year. The next closest team is New England at 2.6, just a hair shy ($600 million).

forbes.com

There has been plenty of skepticism about the pass-interference call that was picked up against the Lions. Many have touted the idea that Roger Goodell wants the Cowboys to advance because of their financial value to the league.

Count me in!

A victory would set up one of the league's most polarizing franchises against its most polarizing player, Richard Sherman. (That assumes the Seahawks defeat the Panthers. Sorry, Cam.) That potential matchup is not something that has gone unnoticed by the league office. No way!

This theory would likely spell eventual doom for the Seahawks as well. Why wouldn't Goodell want the Cowboys' train to carry them into the Super Bowl?? The game will be played in Arizona, and plenty of Dallas fans could make the trip.

Many believe that the NFL needs the Cowboys in the Super Bowl. Jerry Jones certainly believes it. So does Chris Christie. The only remaining question: does Roger Goodell believe it too?