Into the Fire: Colts vs. Pats

(thefadedraider)

Last week Colts' QB Andrew Luck defeated his predecessor in a game that heralded the passing of the torch. This week Luck is faced with an even greater challenge: he will meet Tom Brady in New England with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

The Patriots will be appearing in their ninth conference championship game during the Brady/Belichick Era. Brady is seeking his NFL-record sixth Super Bowl appearance, while Luck has never advanced past the current round.

In three seasons in the NFL, Andrew Luck has managed to advance one round further in each year. In his rookie season he was eliminated in the wildcard round by Baltimore; in his second, he orchestrated a magnificent win against Kansas City before losing to New England. This year, he made it through the Bengals and the Broncos and now faces the Patriots for the second consecutive postseason.

In their last meeting, RB Jonas Gray finished with 37 rushes, 201 yards, 4 TDs
(Joe Robbins / Getty Images)

The pattern suggests that it may be one more year before Andrew Luck and the Colts reach the Super Bowl. Unfortunately for Luck, statistical history does not disagree.


In three previous meetings, Andrew Luck has passed for six touchdowns and eight interceptions, but it has been Indianapolis' porous defense that has prevented them from winning any of the match-ups.

The scores tell the story:

59-24, New England.
43-22, Pats.
42-20, Brady.

In the Andrew Luck era, the Colts defense has given up an average of 48 points per game, while the offense manages just 22. Brady has thrown 5 TDs to just 2 INTs, but has not needed to do much to lead his team to victory-- Indianapolis has been horrible against the run.

In their past two match-ups alone, the Colts have allowed 480 yards on the ground and 10 rushing touchdowns. Each game saw a different Patriots' running back go for 4 TDs: LeGarrette Blunt and Jonas Gray. Both of those RBs are on the current roster. In the last matchup, Gray alone rushed for over 200 yards.

This year Indianapolis is ranked 22nd against the run in the league, allowing an average of 100.8 yards-per-game in the regular season. Their two postseason performances have been right in line with their average.

(Jim Rogash / Getty Images)

The good news: that is less than half the average amount allowed against the Patriots!

The bad news: Andy Dalton is not Tom Brady.

Neither, we can emphatically conclude, is Peyton Manning.


Stopping the run means forcing the throw, and if there ever was a QB up for the task, it was Brady. In fact, last week against the Ravens, the Patriots threw 51 pass attempts, compared to just 13 rushes (including the kneel-downs), and finished with over 400 passing yards and 4 passing touchdowns.


All signs point to the Patriots emerging victorious in the AFC Championship game, but Luck and the Colts have proven to be anything but conventional. They will need their young quarterback, and the quality he represents, to show up in spades if they hope to advance.