Week Eleven Pick-Em

(Mike McGinnis/Getty Images)

Picks in CAPS. Revisited comments in Italics.

Baltimore at CHICAGO
Jay Cutler will miss the game with an ankle injury suffered last week, and that is exactly why I am picking the Bears. Chicago has looked better with backup QB Josh McCown at the helm, and I expect them to continue playing well together against a mediocre Baltimore team.

McCown statline: 216, 1 TD, 0 INT. Bears win. 1-0! 

NEW YORK JETS at Buffalo
Geno and the Jets will break their roller-coaster pattern and win their second game in a row in Buffalo. EJ Manuel will play in his second game back from injury, but will be missing his number one and two receivers, Steve Johnson and Robert Woods. The Bills will limp into their bye next week with a loss.

Damn you, Geno Coaster! Jets lose big 37-14. 1-1. 

Cleveland at CINCINNATI
This has the potential to be the quietest great game of the season, as the Browns seem to be clicking with Jason Campbell at QB. Their defense is making a case to be regarded as one of the best in the league, and AJ Green will have his hands full all day with CB Joe Haden. However, the division-leading Bengals will bounce back from back-to-back OT losses with a win at home against the Browns.

AJ Green held to SEVEN yards, but Cinci still won. 2-1! 

Washington at PHILADELPHIA
Chip Kelley's offense finally looks to be clicking. Nick Foles has thrown for 10 TDs and 0 INTs in his last two games alone, and the Eagles have moved into a tie for first place with Dallas in the NFC East. Although Philadelphia has lost 10 straight home games, I have them shocking their fans with a win on Sunday over Washington and its 26th ranked passing defense.

Foles throws for 298, but no TDs, and still not INTs. 3-1! 

DETROIT at Pittsburgh
All aboard the bandwagon! I'm taking Matty Stafford and Megatron to take down the underachieving Steelers. Detroit is playing like a hungry team, and after missing the playoffs last year with an 8-game losing streak, they have their eyes set on a return to the playoffs. They'll improve their chances of winning the division with win on Sunday.

Never bet on Jim Schwartz. 3-2. 

Atlanta at TAMPA BAY
The Bucs are no longer winless, and if they beat the Falcons on Sunday, they will have the same exact record. That is how poor the Falcons have played this season. QB Mike Glennon has looked decent, but has been aided by a sneaky good running-game (which is now down to third-string RB Bobby Rainey) and a surprisingly solid Bucs defense. I expect Atlanta to be thwarted yet again when the travel to Tampa to face the Bucs.

Wowzers the Falcons are terrible. 41-28, and the score doesn't do it justice. 4-2! 

ARIZONA at Jacksonville
The Cardinals' quest for a wild-card berth will be aided with a win against the Jags. Fans of Arizona are no doubt hoping for a 49ers loss in New Orleans, as they would move into a tie for second with San Francisco and increase their odds of returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2009. The Jags got a win last week; I hope they had enough time to savor it.

Jacksonville is terrible, but still it was hard to pick the Cardinals. Paid off this time. 5-2! 

Oakland at HOUSTON
Terrelle Pryor will miss the game with a sprained knee, Darren McFadden will miss the game with whatever his injury is this time, and the Raiders will miss both of them as their offense struggles against the Texans. Houston will see its head coach, Gary Kubiak, return after collapsing during the game against the Colts. QB Case Keenum has played well in all of his two starts, losing by three points in each game, but will get his first victory as a starter today at home.

I only picked them to lose so they would win... 5-3. 

Afternoon Games

San Diego at MIAMI
After an embarrassing nationally-televised loss to the winless teams, I expect the Dolphins to rebound at home against the Chargers. San Diego has a history of losing on the east coast and losing crucial games toward the end of the season that cost them the playoffs, and I have gotten so used to the trend that I expect nothing less. Keep your eye on Phillip Rivers, because I think he is in for a long day, and there are bound to be some entertaining temper tantrums on the sidelines.

Hahahahahahaha Chargers. I love it. 6-3! 

San Francisco at NEW ORLEANS
Drew Brees will be slowed by a strong San Francisco defense, but not impeded enough to suffer the loss at home. Kaepernick and the 49ers look to get back on track against a mediocre Saints defense, and will have much success in the running game, but will be unable to keep pace with Drew Brees, and the Saints will escape with a narrow victory.

Narrow victory indeed. Hartley kicked the winning FG as time expired. 7-3! 

GREEN BAY at New York Giants
Run the ball! That's all the Packers have to do to leave the Meadowlands with the win on Sunday. That formula eluded them last week, but by now, hopefully someone has relayed the message to third-string QB Scott Tolzein, who will start the first game of his career on Sunday. The Giants have played well for the past three games, but obviously didn't play well for their first 6, as they are currently 3-6. I expect them to lay another egg on Sunday and miss a chance to beat an injury-plagued Packers team.

GB tallied 55 rushing yards and a loss. 7-4. 

Minnesotta at SEATTLE
The Vikings are fresh off a win and I hope they enjoyed it while it lasted. They travel to one of the loudest stadiums to face one of the best teams, and stand little chance of winning. WR Percy Harvin will play his first game for the Seahawks, and it will come against his former team. Look for his number to be called all afternoon, as Seattle will look to take advantage of yet another explosive weapon on offense.

Easy pick. 8-4!

Kansas City at DENVER
*Sunday Night*
The Broncos will finally bring the Chiefs down to earth. The KC offense will struggle for most of the game, while Peyton Manning will move the team up and down at will, and the Chiefs will drop their first game of the season. The teams face each other again in two weeks, in Kansas City, and the division winner will likely be decided by the outcome of those two crucial games.

Closer than I thought it would be, and I'm definitely taking KC in the next meeting. 9-4! 


NEW ENGLAND at Carolina
*Monday Night*
Carolina's great run will come to an end against the Pats. The Patriots are finally getting healthy and will need to start clicking before the playoffs arrive. A quality win against a quality team will help them get their act together just in time.

New England at CAROLINA!
When I wrote this earlier I thought NE was at home. The Pats are off the bye, but I can't NOT root for the Panthers, especially because I need them to stop Gronk or I will lose my fantasy match-up.

Caaaaaam! Won the game, won my fantasy game, and ended 10-4 this week! 

Week Ten Pick-Em

Week Ten Pick-Em

Despite this picture, I'm taking Stafford, Calvin Johnson and the Lions over the Bears (Walter Iooss Jr./SI)

(my picks in CAPS)

Revisited in Italics

Early Games

DETROIT at Chicago
Young Matt Stafford has thrown for 845 yards and 8 touchdowns in the last TWO games. He also has Megatron. They face a team that allows over 28 points a game, and they will get the W.

Detroit only scored 21, but did get the win. 1-0!

SEATTLE at Atlanta
Roddy White returns! Why-- to provide a decoy for Harry Douglas? Atlanta continues its offensive futility against one of the best defenses in the league. I'm predicting 55 rushing yards from S-Jax in the loss.

White grabbed one catch on the day, while Jackson was held to ELEVEN yards. Not even I could have foreseen THAT pitiful output. 2-0! 

Philadelphia at GREEN BAY
Green Bay will look sketchy without Rodgers but will be carried by Eddie Lacy to victory. Foles 275, 3 TDs, and 2 pics in the loss.

Foles threw for over 200 and his 3 TDs, but no pics meant no victory for the Packers. 2-1.

Jacksonville at TENNESSEE
... Don't really have much to say about this game...

Nor do I now. 2-2. 

St. Louis at INDIANAPOLIS
Mark Schlereth called this a "get-right" game for the Colts, and I think they will in the win over the Rams. But if I'm the Colts, I'm more interested in how I measure up against an emerging star, Zach Stacy, than I am with beating a last-place team.

"Get right" the hell out of here if you're telling me you saw this one coming. Colts smashed at home by the Rams and Tayvon Austin. 2-3.

BUFFALO at Pittsburgh
The return of EJ Manuel will go well enough for an ugly win against an ugly team. They may be used to ugly football in Pittsburgh, but this isn't the good kind of ugly.

Correct: "ugly". Incorrect: Steelers win. 2-4.

CINCINNATI at Baltimore
Baltimore has not run the ball well this season, and will not improve their efforts against a stingy Bengals defense. The Ravens defense has not impressed either. Andy Dalton and the Bengals will prove their dominance in the AFC North by showing up the Ravens this Sunday.

The Bengals only proved I know nothing about football. 2-5.

Pryor will make some big plays on Sunday (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Afternoon Games

OAKLAND at New York Giants
Oakland bounces back against a struggling Giants team. Eli goes down while Pryor goes downfield, and Oakland wins on the East Coast for the first time since 2009.

The Raiders furthered that sentiment. 2-6.

Carolina at SAN FRANCISCO
As much as I'd like to see the upset, I see the Niners emerging with the victory on Sunday. I think the Panthers' defense will contain Kaepernick and the run game, but a rested San Francisco team will grind out the win.

The only reason I didn't is because I didn't want to jinx it. Big ups to the Panthers for playing great on the road against the rested 49ers. 2-7.

Houston at ARIZONA
In this week's "feel-good" pick, I'm taking the Cardinals because I "feel good" about them. I haven't thought much about their efforts all year, but they are still 4-4, and at home against a struggling team, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

Feelin' good! Or at least better. 3-7!

DENVER at San Diego
San Diego's offense has looked good recently (except when it hasn't), and Denver's defense has been spotty at times. But I see an unimpeded Denver offense and a lot of interceptions as Rivers tries to keep pace with Peyton Manning.

Easy pick, tho it was closer than I expected. SD falls 28-20. 4-7!

Sunday Night

Dallas at NEW ORLEANS
Drew Brees at home against the 31st ranked pass defense in the league? Tony Romo in a nationally televised game with serious playoff implications? The return of DeMarcus Ware will be irrelevant and the Saints will be the brighter stars on Sunday Night Football.

Poor Tony Romo. 5-7!

Monday Night

Miami at TAMPA BAY
Yes, I'm taking the winless Bucs! They have had some close losses this season and played better than I expected last Sunday, even though they blew the game. I see a Dolphins team too distracted by the Jonathan Martin saga, but I don't blame them. Everyone else certainly is.

Bucs won a game! It was sometime in between Tirico interviewing the Dolphins owner about Martin and Lisa Salters asking Philbin about Incognito. So that counts as a win for me. 6-7!