This Changes Everything!

The Packers entered Monday Night's game against the Bears as the favorites to win the game and the NFC North. They left Lambeau having lost the division lead and their starting quarterback.

QB Aaron Rodgers looks on helplessly from the sidelines in a loss to the Bears. (Mike McGinnis/Getty Images)

For the last three weeks the Packers have enjoyed sole possession of first place. After a tough start to the season, things had finally begun to break their way. Green Bay opened their year at 1-2 after road losses to San Francisco and Cincinnati-- both playoff teams-- by a total of 6 and 4 points, respectively. Week 4 had them on the bye, and they had won every game since: 4 straight heading into last week.

Week 7 saw their fortunes swing even more favorably: losses by division-rivals Detroit and Chicago put the Packers one game up in the standings. Additionally, Chicago lost starting QB Jay Cutler to a torn groin muscle, and he was expected to miss up to a month.

In their own matchup against Cleveland, Green Bay found success on the ground with RB Eddie Lacy. Also, their passing game looked uninhibited by the losses of WRs James Jones and Randall Cobb the week before. QB Aaron Rodgers threw three TDs on the day, and second-year WR Jarrett Boykin stepped up to haul in 103 yards and a touchdown in absence of the top threats.

Factor in the self-destructive tendencies of Chicago and Detroit, and it looked like the NFC North was again Green Bay's division to win. This is what was projected from the start: the Packers began the season ranked 5th in ESPN's Power Rankings, while Chicago (after finishing 10-6 but missing the playoffs) began at 14th and Detroit (after a disastrous 4-12 season) was ranked as low as 21st.

But after losing at home to backup QB Josh McCown and the Bears, Green Bay drops back into a three-way tie for first with Chicago and the resurgent Detroit Lions. Now, facing at least three weeks without their MVP, Green bay will have to find a way to win in a division with little room for error.

Rodgers suffered the injury on this play.
(AP Photo/Morry Gash)

It should be noted that there has been no official timetable disclosed for the return of Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay officials, as well as Rodgers himself, have been hesitant to admit anything more than the diagnosis: a fractured collarbone of the non-throwing arm. But the prospect of backup QB Seneca Wallace starting for the Pack has made some fans a little queasy.

The 33-year old journeyman has only 21 starts to his name and has not appeared in a regular season game since the 2011 season. He has a career completion percentage of under 60% and 29 turnovers to his 31 touchdowns. And it is no wonder that Green Bay fans feel skeptical of the replacement: since 1993, only three quarterbacks have started for the Packers. Two of them are named Rodgers and Favre. (The other? Matt Flynn!)

Seneca Wallace has big shoes to fill.
(Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

After losing Jay Cutler, Chicago was able to insert their backup quarterback without missing a beat. In his two games as the substitute, McCown threw 3 touchdowns with no interceptions and posted an average QBR of 86.1-- the highest in the league! (To put it in perspective, the season QBR of Aaron Rodgers is 70.3.)

It remains to be seen how prepared the Packers were for a nightmare scenario like this.

Wallace was the only other QB on the active roster when Rodgers went down, and already rumors of Brett Favre's return have been whispered. That, however, seems very unlikely-- by now, Favre might not even remember what team he played for. More likely is the option to re-sign former backup QB Matt Flynn, who, since his departure from Green Bay, has been unable to find any stability, and was cut from the last-place Bills earlier this week.

Green Bay cannot afford to lose ground with two teams breathing down their necks and the Niners/Seahawks already occupying one of the two NFC wildcard spots. Without their star QB, they will rely heavily on their running game to relieve much of the pressure on Seneca Wallace (as if replacing the Super Bowl XLV MVP wasn't enough).

Fortunately for Wallace, the Green Bay running game is one of the most improved in the league this year. They are currently ranked 2nd in the NFL at 149 yards-per-game. Since returning from a concussion suffered against Washington, the rookie sensation Eddie Lacy has averaged 109 rush yards per game and has a touchdown in each of his last three games.

Lacy will need to continue his success to keep Green Bay alive
(Mike McGinnis/Getty Images)

Green Bay's upcoming schedule is about as good as they could hope for in their situation. Besides Chicago and Detroit, they will not play another team with a winning record until Week 15 in Dallas. Chicago faces the toughest remaining schedule, as they will play Dallas and Cleveland before closing the season against the Packers in a game now looming larger than ever. Detroit does not play another team with a winning record beside Chicago and Green Bay, and will close their season against the lowly Vikings.

On paper, the teams seem evenly matched. All three are 3-1 at home, 2-2 on the road, and 2-1 in the division. That means they each will play through their division one more time. Playoff tiebreakers are decided by head-to-head outcomes and records against division opponents, making the final 8 games of the season absolutely crucial for each team if they hope to make the postseason.

The drama starts this weekend as the Lions and Bears square off this Sunday at Soldier Field. (Jay Cutler will return from injury as the starter this week.) The Packers host the Philly and the Nick Foles show, but even with a win will remain tied with the eventual winner in Chicago.

That order, however, is made much taller without the firepower of the 2011 NFL MVP.

So it goes. So it goes.
(AP Photo/Morry Gash)

Can the Packers' playoff hopes survive without their quarterback, Aaron Rodgers? 

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