Identity Crisis in Indy

Latest Win Raises Eyebrows

A win is a win... or is it?

They dress in blue and white. They come from Indianapolis. Their mascot is a horse and their running back might be too.

But who are the Indianapolis Colts?

Are they the true Super Bowl favorite of the AFC? Or are they just a good team riding a great high?

Last night the Colts fell behind the Texans 21-3. They were badly outplayed by a 2-5 team for the entire first half. Their defense allowed 190 receiving yards in the first half (to a single player!) and gave up a 62-yard touchdown bomb on the third play of the game. Their offense struggled mightily, earning only 138 total yards in the first two quarters, and their first five drives resulted in four punts and a blocked FG attempt.

The only scoring drive they mustered in the first half came via a 46-yard pass interference call. Luck went deep to Heyward-Bey on the first play of the drive, and the penalty put the ball inside the ten yard line (unfair, because he would have dropped the ball no matter what). From there, the Colts offense gained one yard before moving backward and being forced to settle for a short FG.

These are the same Colts who upset a Super-Bowl favorite Denver team in the homecoming of Indianapolis' prodigal son (prodigal quarterback?), Peyton Manning. This is a team that had already grinded out victories against the NFC Super Bowl favorites as well, spanking the Niners IN San Francisco and defeating Seattle at Lucas Oil Stadium just two weeks after.

Yet here they were, coming off their bye-week and down big at halftime to a Houston team that had lost five straight. The Texans were starting a third-string quarterback and were without pro-bowl RB Arian Foster (who suited up but recorded zero touches during the game). Also, Texans head coach Gary Kubiak was taken to the hospital at halftime and did not even coach the second-half. (Shout out to Coach Kubiak, hoping for his good health.)

And still the first-place Colts found themselves down by three scores after thirty minutes of play.

It seems like someone in the Colts' locker room raised the question at the break, because they came out ready to play in the second half. They took their first possession 41 yards for a FG, then followed that with three straight touchdown drives of 78, 67, and 52 yards, respectively. Their only punt in the second half came with under a minute to go in the fourth quarter.

To be fair, that punt came at a crucial part of the game. They were unable to get a first down and eat the clock, and instead had to give the ball back to Houston, down just three points, with enough time to get in position for a game-tying field-goal attempt. Randy Bullock pulled the kick (one of his three misses on the day) and the Colts escaped Texas with a narrow victory.

So here is what we know about the Colts:

This year, four of their victories have come with an average margin of 4.75 points. (I'm discounting the Jags in that statistic, as well as the 49ers, to both bulk up the stat and humiliate San Fran by association). They squeaked out some nail-biters against Denver, Houston, and Seattle, and were a Terrelle Pryor interception in the endzone away from being upset by the Raiders in their own stadium.

They fell behind 14-3 in their Week 2 loss to the Dolphins (by just 4 points) and failed to score a touchdown in their loss to San Diego. Neither of those teams are above .500.

Last year, the Colts went 11-5 and made the playoffs. Their margin of victory in 2012 (if I again discount the Jags, who they have outscored 64-13 in their past two meetings) was a mere 5.1 points per win, and only 3 of the 11 wins came against teams that made the playoffs. (By the way, the Jags managed to beat the Colts in Week 3 of last year for one of their TWO victories that year. That makes Jacksonville 2-22 in the last two seasons.)

In that span, QB Andrew Luck has 10 game-winning drives-- an NFL record for the first two seasons, and this one is only halfway through. And with their habit of playing down to lesser teams and coming from behind to win, you can expect to see a few more of these before the postseason.

However, the Colts will need to get their act together long before the playoffs arrive. They cannot afford to fall behind early. Good teams will not let them rally late in the game. They will certainly not stop scoring inexplicably, like the Houston Texans did last night.

Let's not forget the playoffs last year. A magical run ended in Baltimore as the Colts were trounced by the Ravens in the first round. In that game, they only entered the red zone once, and again failed to find the end zone.

Sometimes the Colts are able to rally and escape with a last-minute victory. But this is not a strategy they should count on if they hope to make a serious playoff push.

To their credit, the Colts have lost two starting running backs to season-ending injuries, as well as their star receiver Reggie Wayne to a torn ACL, yet they have shown no signs of collapse (see Falcons, Atlanta).

Richardson has yet to make an impact

Part of this was offset by the immediate trade for third-overall pick, and Heisman runner-up, Trent Richardson. However, the running back has been largely unable to produce for the Colts, and has yet to surpass 60 rushing yards in a game this year. Last night, he was held to 20 yards on 8 carries, bringing him to a season average of 3.1 yards per carry-- 44th in the league!

This only leads to more questions: When will their running game be effective? And what will their offense look like when it does?

If it does come around, they can add balance and dimension to their attack. They can control the football, dictate the tempo, and open up a dangerous passing game. Last year, Luck broke the record for passing yards by a rookie with 4,374. This year, he is paced for only 3,690.

At 6-2, the Colts are ahead in their division by 2 full games. Only two of their remaining opponents currently have winning records, and Indianapolis looks poised to enter the playoffs as winners of the AFC South. However, if they do not get the ground game going and figure out a way to maintain a close score, they will find themselves falling short of their ultimate dream: a trip to Jersey in February.

For now, they find their Super Bowl hopes embedded completely in one concept, "Luck", both the player and the principle.