Thursday, November 14, 2013

Harbaugh's Headache

(Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Now I know what you are thinking.

Of course, here is another Raiders fan bashing the 49ers for no reason other than the fact that he has nothing better to do. Just bitter and jealous. How many Super Bowls do you guys have again? 

Innate acrimony aside, please realize I am being objective here. As much as it pleases me to ridicule the 49ers for their futility, I am not writing for that purpose alone. It is just that there are some glaring issues with this San Francisco team, and I want to discuss the causes and the impact on their chances of re-appearing in the Super Bowl this year. Right now that dream seems beyond reach.

Kaep threw the ball well... in warmups
(Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Many of these concerns were brought to light by their most recent performance against the Carolina Panthers. Colin Kaepernick was, in a word, terrible. He went 11 for 22 with 91 yards passing and an interception. He was held to just 16 yards rushing, and was sacked a season-high 6 times for a net loss of 45 yards-- nearly half his passing total. For the second time this year, the 49ers offense failed to score a touchdown.

With the loss, the 49ers (who had won their previous 5 games) drop to 6-3 and now hold a very tentative grip on the last remaining playoff spot.

What seems to be universally accepted is that the success of the 49ers is inextricably tied to the health of Vernon Davis. Statistically, Vernon Davis has had the single greatest impact on the ability of the 49ers to score points and win games. In their six wins the 49ers have averaged 34.6 points per game, and Davis has been a star contributor on the offensive side of the ball, tallying 498 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns-- the third most of all tight-ends.



Can the 49ers win without Vernon Davis?
(Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
But all three of San Francisco's losses were games that Davis either missed or was knocked out of, and in those games the 49ers averaged just 6.3 points per game.

The starting tight-end was forced out of the Carolina game in the second quarter with a concussion, and the 49ers were shut out in the second half.

In Week 2, against Seattle, Davis injured his hamstring and was unable to complete the game. He departed with 20 receiving yards and Kaepernick finished the game with only 127 yards passing to go with 3 interceptions. The 49ers lost 29-3.

Davis sat out the following week against Indianapolis. In that game, Kaepernick completed less than half of his passes, threw another interception, and was handed his first home-loss as a starter by a decisive score of 27-7.

In games with Vernon Davis, Kaepernick, has thrown 9 touchdowns and only 1 pic. However, without his favorite downfield target, he has thrown 5 pics and has not passed for-- or rushed for-- a single touchdown.

Many have been quick to dismiss these troubling statistics and point to the return of Michael Crabtree as the boost the 49ers need to overcome these woes and propel them into (and through) the playoffs. Without Crabtree, I'm told, Colin Kaepernick simply does not have the weapons around him to succeed, especially if Davis is out too.

Needless to say, I have my doubts.

Michael Crabtree may have not yet played in a game this year, but I know of another top-notch receiver on the roster that has not missed a snap all season long. His name is Anquan Boldin.

Remember me? (Harry How/Getty Images)

He has five 1,000 yard receiving seasons under his belt, and over the last ten years has averaged 1,016.5 yards per season. He has a Super Bowl ring (the one that could have been San Francisco's) and appeared in another with the Cardinals. Futhermore, he was a Billy Cundiff 32 yard field-goal away from his third Super Bowl in five years.

His history of success led many to believe he was the missing piece that the 49ers needed to secure a Super Bowl victory this year. Instead, he has seemed largely irrelevant thus far, and his numbers are the lowest since his second season in Arizona.

Meanwhile, in four years Crabtree has only surpassed the 1,000 yard marker once-- last season.

Is Crabtree really the answer? (Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

It is not a lack of weapons that troubles the 49ers. It is their inability to utilize them.

63 Career TDs on the sideline
(AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
Last year the 49ers added two playmakers from the Super Bowl-winning New York Giants team. At the time of his signing, Brandon Jacobs already had a ring for each hand and had played a major role in those Super Bowl seasons. However, Jim Harbaugh envisioned a different role for Jacobs, and I still haven't figured out exactly what that role was. Jacobs tallied just 7 yards on 5 carries on the year before being released in December after venting his frustration on Twitter.

The 49ers also added WR Mario Manningham to their roster the year after he made one of the greatest catches in Super Bowl history. His receiving stats in his first year in SF were the lowest since his rookie year, during which he recorded only 4 receptions in 7 appearances. He was injured toward the end of last season and appeared in his first game last week in the loss to the Panthers. One would think that the 49ers would be thrilled to have such a weapon back on the field. But after spending last season on the sideline, one also wonders what difference it will make.

Next on the list of underutilized offensive firestorms is former Oregon standout LaMichael James. The 2012 second-round pick has appeared in only 7 regular-season games for San Francisco, but was used in all three of their post-season games last year. Although he has been given opportunities as a kick-returner, he too has vented frustration about a lack of playing time. "I don't work at State Farm," he tweeted. "I'm not trying to be insurance."

5,082 yards and 58 TDs in 3 years at Oregon
(uwire.com)

Add his name to the growing list of offensive weapons that sit idly on the sidelines with pained expressions on their faces.

The 49ers have been able to run the ball all season long. They average 157.7 yards per game and are 4th in the league. Even in their defeats, the 49ers have managed over 100 yards on the ground against the top defenses in the league. If you can run the ball, you can dictate the tempo and control the game, especially with a defense as strong as San Francisco's. Contribution from a strong running game also takes pressure off the passing game and opens up the play-action pass.

Gore already has 700 yards and 7 TDs this season
(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

They should not have to rely on Kaepernick's arm to win games for them.

And yet, the 49ers are heading into the Superdome to face Drew Brees and the Saints up only one game up in the wildcard race. That's about as tough a matchup as you can draw in this league, especially with such a small margin for error. 

Apart from Carolina, who heads into New England to face Tom Brady, the other wild-card chasers face very winnable situations: the 6-3 Lions host the 3-6 Steelers; the 5-4 Bears host the 4-5 Ravens; 5-4 Green Bay visits the 3-6 Giants; and 5-4 Arizona travels to face the 1-8 Jags. 

Vernon Davis is currently questionable for Sunday's showdown on the Bayou. However, the 49ers cannot rely on his presence to be the difference in the game, and will need to find a way to win if they hope to keeps their hopes for a title alive. 

San Francisco travels to New Orleans for the first time since last year's Super Bowl, and will no doubt have to deal with the tough memories of the loss. But if they do not figure out ways to utilize all of the weapons on their roster, their dreams of reaching the Super Bowl this year will be reduced to memories as well.



Praying for another chance (Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Is Crabtree the answer? Will the 49ers find themselves playing in February? Is Harbaugh an idiot? Let me know what you think! Comment below... 

3 comments:

  1. Honestly, there have some questionable coaching decisions

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  2. What a load of junk. Harbaugh and the 49ers will be fine! Super Bowl Bound for sureeeee

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  3. Sometimes the truth hurts~

    ReplyDelete