Harbaugh's Headache

(Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Now I know what you are thinking.

Of course, here is another Raiders fan bashing the 49ers for no reason other than the fact that he has nothing better to do. Just bitter and jealous. How many Super Bowls do you guys have again? 

Innate acrimony aside, please realize I am being objective here. As much as it pleases me to ridicule the 49ers for their futility, I am not writing for that purpose alone. It is just that there are some glaring issues with this San Francisco team, and I want to discuss the causes and the impact on their chances of re-appearing in the Super Bowl this year. Right now that dream seems beyond reach.

Kaep threw the ball well... in warmups
(Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Many of these concerns were brought to light by their most recent performance against the Carolina Panthers. Colin Kaepernick was, in a word, terrible. He went 11 for 22 with 91 yards passing and an interception. He was held to just 16 yards rushing, and was sacked a season-high 6 times for a net loss of 45 yards-- nearly half his passing total. For the second time this year, the 49ers offense failed to score a touchdown.

With the loss, the 49ers (who had won their previous 5 games) drop to 6-3 and now hold a very tentative grip on the last remaining playoff spot.

What seems to be universally accepted is that the success of the 49ers is inextricably tied to the health of Vernon Davis. Statistically, Vernon Davis has had the single greatest impact on the ability of the 49ers to score points and win games. In their six wins the 49ers have averaged 34.6 points per game, and Davis has been a star contributor on the offensive side of the ball, tallying 498 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns-- the third most of all tight-ends.

Can the 49ers win without Vernon Davis?
(Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

But all three of San Francisco's losses were games that Davis either missed or was knocked out of, and in those games the 49ers averaged just 6.3 points per game.

The starting tight-end was forced out of the Carolina game in the second quarter with a concussion, and the 49ers were shut out in the second half.

In Week 2, against Seattle, Davis injured his hamstring and was unable to complete the game. He departed with 20 receiving yards and Kaepernick finished the game with only 127 yards passing to go with 3 interceptions. The 49ers lost 29-3.

Davis sat out the following week against Indianapolis. In that game, Kaepernick completed less than half of his passes, threw another interception, and was handed his first home-loss as a starter by a decisive score of 27-7.

In games with Vernon Davis, Kaepernick, has thrown 9 touchdowns and only 1 pic. However, without his favorite downfield target, he has thrown 5 pics and has not passed for-- or rushed for-- a single touchdown.

Many have been quick to dismiss these troubling statistics and point to the return of Michael Crabtree as the boost the 49ers need to overcome these woes and propel them into (and through) the playoffs. Without Crabtree, I'm told, Colin Kaepernick simply does not have the weapons around him to succeed, especially if Davis is out too.

Needless to say, I have my doubts.

Michael Crabtree may have not yet played in a game this year, but I know of another top-notch receiver on the roster that has not missed a snap all season long. His name is Anquan Boldin.

Remember me? (Harry How/Getty Images)

He has five 1,000 yard receiving seasons under his belt, and over the last ten years has averaged 1,016.5 yards per season. He has a Super Bowl ring (the one that could have been San Francisco's) and appeared in another with the Cardinals. Futhermore, he was a Billy Cundiff 32 yard field-goal away from his third Super Bowl in five years.

His history of success led many to believe he was the missing piece that the 49ers needed to secure a Super Bowl victory this year. Instead, he has seemed largely irrelevant thus far, and his numbers are the lowest since his second season in Arizona.

Meanwhile, in four years Crabtree has only surpassed the 1,000 yard marker once-- last season.

Is Crabtree really the answer? (Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

It is not a lack of weapons that troubles the 49ers. It is their inability to utilize them.

63 Career TDs on the sideline
(AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

Last year the 49ers added two playmakers from the Super Bowl-winning New York Giants team. At the time of his signing, Brandon Jacobs already had a ring for each hand and had played a major role in those Super Bowl seasons. However, Jim Harbaugh envisioned a different role for Jacobs, and I still haven't figured out exactly what that role was. Jacobs tallied just 7 yards on 5 carries on the year before being released in December after venting his frustration on Twitter.

The 49ers also added WR Mario Manningham to their roster the year after he made one of the greatest catches in Super Bowl history. His receiving stats in his first year in SF were the lowest since his rookie year, during which he recorded only 4 receptions in 7 appearances. He was injured toward the end of last season and appeared in his first game last week in the loss to the Panthers. One would think that the 49ers would be thrilled to have such a weapon back on the field. But after spending last season on the sideline, one also wonders what difference it will make.

Next on the list of underutilized offensive firestorms is former Oregon standout LaMichael James. The 2012 second-round pick has appeared in only 7 regular-season games for San Francisco, but was used in all three of their post-season games last year. Although he has been given opportunities as a kick-returner, he too has vented frustration about a lack of playing time. "I don't work at State Farm," he tweeted. "I'm not trying to be insurance."

5,082 yards and 58 TDs in 3 years at Oregon
(uwire.com)

Add his name to the growing list of offensive weapons that sit idly on the sidelines with pained expressions on their faces.

The 49ers have been able to run the ball all season long. They average 157.7 yards per game and are 4th in the league. Even in their defeats, the 49ers have managed over 100 yards on the ground against the top defenses in the league. If you can run the ball, you can dictate the tempo and control the game, especially with a defense as strong as San Francisco's. Contribution from a strong running game also takes pressure off the passing game and opens up the play-action pass.

Gore already has 700 yards and 7 TDs this season
(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

They should not have to rely on Kaepernick's arm to win games for them.

And yet, the 49ers are heading into the Superdome to face Drew Brees and the Saints up only one game up in the wildcard race. That's about as tough a matchup as you can draw in this league, especially with such a small margin for error. 

Apart from Carolina, who heads into New England to face Tom Brady, the other wild-card chasers face very winnable situations: the 6-3 Lions host the 3-6 Steelers; the 5-4 Bears host the 4-5 Ravens; 5-4 Green Bay visits the 3-6 Giants; and 5-4 Arizona travels to face the 1-8 Jags. 

Vernon Davis is currently questionable for Sunday's showdown on the Bayou. However, the 49ers cannot rely on his presence to be the difference in the game, and will need to find a way to win if they hope to keeps their hopes for a title alive. 

San Francisco travels to New Orleans for the first time since last year's Super Bowl, and will no doubt have to deal with the tough memories of the loss. But if they do not figure out ways to utilize all of the weapons on their roster, their dreams of reaching the Super Bowl this year will be reduced to memories as well.

Praying for another chance (Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Is Crabtree the answer? Will the 49ers find themselves playing in February? Is Harbaugh an idiot? Let me know what you think! Comment below... 

Raider Recap: Week 10-- Giants

Offensive Futility Continues

Another winnable game slips away (Al Bello/Getty Images)

It was first and goal from the one yard line.

For a second, it looked like the Oakland Raiders were going to compile a respectable scoring drive all on their own, with no help from defensive turnovers or big returns. They had taken the second-half kickoff and driven 79 yards in over seven minutes, and found themselves three feet from opening up a ten-point lead on the road.

Jennings was stuffed on first down, and on second they attempted a play action pass that fell incomplete. Moore was double covered, and Pryor's throw took him out of the end-zone anyway. A penalty backed them up on third down, and after Pryor threw another incompletion, they were forced to settle for a field goal. Essentially, they were three feet from four more points, and they could not force the ball over the plane.

Those four points ended up the difference in the game.

But it is almost better that they did not win yesterday. If they had won, we would be commending the Raiders for traveling across the country and snapping an 11-game losing streak on the East Coast. (It is now 12.) If they had won, we would be looking toward a promising stretch of season, during which our offensive line would continue to improve, boosted by the return of its missing starters, and our running game would finally get on track when McFadden's hamstring heals.

But they did not win, and instead of deluding ourselves about the future, we are left to discuss the fatal shortcomings of the 3-6 Raiders.

First, it must be acknowledged that Terrelle Pryor is a terrible passer. Mechanics aside, the numbers say that the Raiders are ranked 31 of 32 in the NFL with only 187.6 passing yards per game. (Silver lining: the 49ers are ranked 32nd.) His best completions have been those where he has been able to escape a collapsing pocket, scramble to the outside and find a receiver downfield who has broken free from his defender-- and his route.

Can't fault him for trying (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Those are called broken plays.

They are not drawn up to be that way. This is not backyard football. But it seems that is where Pryor really excels. He truly is a freak athlete, and no one can blame him for not wanting to stand still as 300-pound D-linemen charge at him as fast as they can. And it would be unfair to blame him for scrambling when an amoebic offensive line fails to provide consistent pass protection. But if you took those improbable broken-play completions out of his season totals, you would surely believe me when I tell you he has been terrible from the pocket this year.

Next, play-calling has been questionable at times, but none more suspect than yesterday in the Meadowlands. Granted, every team has a game plan of what they would like to do. But in some situations, it is better to do what you know will work than try what you hope might do the trick. Example A: yesterday's best scoring opportunity.

The Raiders were on their best drive by far and had an opportunity to really steal the momentum by taking the ball over the plane to start the second half. The first-down run was stuffed, but with three remaining chances to gain one single yard, they abandoned the run for the rest of the drive.

Bear in mind, they had already been on the one-yard-line once in the game, and used their 6'4", 233 pound QB to sneak it in. Therefore they had a proven formula for success, but instead of sticking with it, they inexplicably tried a play-action pass on second down.

After the penalty backed them up, they had no choice but to pass on third (a draw was apparently out of the question) and the result has already been explained. They lost the game.

One the day, Pryor completed just 11 passes and had a completion rate of under 43%. Meanwhile, Rashad Jennings was averaging 4.4 yards-per-carry, and had already rushed for 28 yards on the drive. And when they found themselves one yard away with four chances to score, they threw two passes, committed two penalties, and settled on three points instead of seven.

Plays are called by coaches, and if coaching is an issue, then the buck stops with Dennis Allen. The Raiders have lost all three games against the NFC East (aka the weakest division in football) and the only team they have left to face is the one in first place, Dallas. They have dropped games to beatable teams (twice at home) and have shown an inability to make plays when they need to make plays. Expectations for them were low (or better, nonexistent) but still there is a common belief that they are not playing up to their potential as a football team.

Pained. Confused. On a short leash?
(Elsa/Getty Images)

If I scour my memory of the not-so distant past, I can remember a coach who was incapable in the same regard. He brought the attitude, he said all the right things, and yet when the team was on the verge of the playoffs, hosting a self-destructive San Diego team on the last game of the season in a win-and-you're-in situation, he lost. He lost the game, he lost his temper, and he lost his job after the season ended.

His name was Hue Jackson. He was fired by the GM he helped hire. And though Mackenzie hand-picked Dennis Allen two years ago, he has been quick to admit mistakes and cut ties with the failed experiments (see Flynn, Matt).

I'm not saying I want Dennis Allen fired. I'm not saying I want Greg Olson fired. I just want them to wake up! Because if they don't, then they just might be gone by the end of the year.

Consider yesterday's statistics:

Apart from the aforementioned drive (their longest of the day), the Raiders averaged 8.4 yards per-drive on the other 10 attempts. I'll state that again. Eight point four yards per drive is less than ten yards, also known as a first down, also known as the most fundamental baby-step that any offense can achieve. Two drives netted negative yards, and their second-longest drive of 21 yards resulted in a blocked punt that set up a New York touchdown.

Those drives lasted an average of 4.3 plays, and their second-longest drive from this standpoint was 7 plays for a net yardage of negative three. I'm not even sure how that is possible.

The breakdown for the day: eleven drives, one touchdown, two field goals, five punts, one interception (returned for a score), one blocked kick (to set up another score), and one fumble on the last drive of the day (down by four).

The offense went 2-12 on third-down conversions, and of the 20 points on the scoreboard, had only 3 to its credit. (The other 17 came off turnovers.)

If this trend disturbs you, then you haven't been paying attention. It has been happening all year long.

Oakland cannot rely on the defense to score points (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

Against Pittsburgh, Pryor's 93-yard run was the only highlight on an otherwise forgettable performance. He completed 10 of 19 passes for just 88 yards (seven less than he gained on that opening run.) He also threw two interceptions.

A blocked punt put the Raiders up immediately over Washington, but after scoring twice in the first quarter, the Raiders were unable to move the ball for the remainder of the game. The possessions that followed included 3 turnovers, 6 punts, and a missed field goal. Their longest drive was 7 plays. Yes, Pryor missed that game and Flynn played so bad he was demoted and cut from the team the following week. But nothing changed when Pryor returned, either.

That week Oakland hosted San Diego, and again managed just one respectable drive on the day. 17 of their 27 points came off turnovers, including a fumble-return by Charles Woodson (probably the highlight of the year) and a muffed punt that put the Raiders immediately in Janikowski's range. San Diego had 5 turnovers in the loss. It's a shame the Raiders can't play them every week.

By and large, the Raiders offense has been abysmal for the duration of ten weeks now. Yes their line is banged up, and yes, their star RB is again hampered by injuries. But they still have competed in games, and found themselves in position to win at times. Their own inabilities have doomed them in their losses, and these fatal flaws become more apparent in each disappointing performance.

"I can only show you the door..."  (raiderstribune.com)

I said before, there were virtually no expectations for this team to start the season, but the guys in the locker room never hear that kind of chatter. They believe they have a chance to compete with anybody in the league, and at times, they have proven it. But, as Charles Woodson pointed out before the game on Sunday, if they don't get their act together soon, it may be too late.

"We’re running out of opportunities as a club to do the things we set out to do at the beginning of the season. Every loss takes us farther from our goal."


After losing 5 of the last 7 games, it may be time to re-evaluate what that goal actually is.

Week Ten Recap

Prayers were answered, second-chances were granted, but at this point in the season, the only dependable victories are those earned. 

The improbable last-second touchdown shocked the home crowd and nearly cost me my fantasy win. (si.com)

Cincinnati 17, Baltimore 20

Cincinnatti's prayers were answered when Andy Dalton's tipped hail mary found the open arms of AJ Green. After being held without a touchdown for three full quarters, the Bengals were able to rally and force overtime.

They received the ball first and drove to the outskirts of Mike Nugent's field-goal range, but decided the attempt too risky and went for it on 4th and short. They lost 11 yards on the play and ended up turning the ball over to Baltimore near midfield anyway. Justin Tucker booted the 46 yard game-winner, and the Bengals dropped their second straight game in overtime.

St. Louis 38, Indianapolis 8

The Rams pulled the shocker of the day by upsetting the Colts in their own stadium. They were aided by an explosive outburst from Rookie WR Tayvon Austin, who contributed three touchdowns on the day. The speedster scored on an 81-yard reception, a 57-yard reception, and a 98-yard punt return.

The sluggish Colts managed just 18 rushing yards (17 by Andrew Luck) and have been outscored 49-3 in the first half of their past two games. They only play two teams with winning records the rest of the season, but have little time to get their act together: two of their next three games are against the Titans, who now trail the Colts by just two games.

Oakland 20, New York Giants 24

In an ugly early game, Eli Manning escaped with the win over the Raiders. Both QBs threw interceptions that led to touchdowns, and special teams mistakes were huge. But the Giants made plays when they needed to, and the Raiders were unable to execute for most of the day.

Oakland's East Coast woes continued as they dropped their twelfth straight game in the time zone. (By the way, if you can spell "twelfth" on the first try, I commend you.) Their offense struggled mightily, going 2-12 on third down and gaining just 213 total yards. Without the blocked punt and the interception return, the offense would have little to show on a miserable day. And, oh yea, Terrelle Pryor's knee is only getting worse.

Look familiar? (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

Buffalo 10, Pittsburgh 23

Dick Labeau's dominance against rookie QBs continued at home against the Bills. In his first game back from injury, EJ Manuel completed just 56% of his passes and threw an interception. The Bills struggled to get anything going on offense. Though I missed the outcome, at least I predicted the game would be ugly.

Jacksonville 29, Tennessee 27

The Jacksonville Jaguars took advantage of 4 Titan turnovers and got their first win of the season in Tennessee. Despite a lackluster performance from their offense, the Jaguars defense returned a fumble for a touchdown and forced a safety that ended up being the difference on the scorecard.

Meanwhile, Tennessee QB Jake Locker left the game on a non-contact ankle injury. (Diagnosis: Lisfranc injury, done for the season.) Backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was great in relief, throwing for 264 yards and two touchdowns, in addition to running one in himself. A last second TD to Delanie Walker (which was a devastating blow to my fantasy team) brought it even closer, but the Titans were unable to recover the onside kick and fell at home to the Jags.

Philadelphia 27, Green Bay 13

The Packers suffered a crippling loss at home for the second straight week. Backup QB Seneca Wallace was knocked from the game in the first quarter and replaced by Scott Tolzien, the third-string quarterback best remembered for... that time Seneca Wallace got hurt and he had to play in the game. Green Bay was able to run the ball, but could not overcome two interceptions, including one inside the 5-yard line in a critical scoring situation.

Meanwhile, Nick Foles answered the call and threw for three more touchdowns, bringing his season total up to 16 (with zero interceptions) and Green Bay became the latest victims of the New Slim Shady. (This has yet to catch on, but dammit, I'm gonna keep pushing it.) The Packers fall into second place in the division.

Not pictured: Green Bay's quarterback
(AP Photo/Mike Roemer)

Detroit 21, Chicago 19

The Bears scored a touchdown with under a minute to go, but were stopped twice on the two-point conversion attempt-- a "roughing the passer" call gave them another shot-- and they lost at home to the Lions. In his first game back from injury, Jay Cutler looked ineffective for most of the game. Eventually he was forced to leave in the 4th, and backup Josh McCown led Chicago the drive that would (almost) tie the game, and making a strong case for Chicago to reevaluate its QB hierarchy.

Matt Stafford and the Lions rose into sole possession of first place with the win and simultaneous Green Bay loss. He connected with Calvin Johnson for two scores, giving Megatron the record for most receiving touchdowns in franchise history.

Seattle 33, Atlanta 10

Atlanta's misery continued in a home loss to a Seattle team that is firing on all cylinders. Russell Wilson completed 73% of his passes and threw for two touchdowns, while Lynch contributed 145 on the ground and a score of his own.

The Seattle defense held Atlanta to 226 total yards on the day. Stephen Jackson managed just 11 yards on 9 carries and was out-rushed by the hardly mobile Matt Ryan. The return of Roddy White was just as irrelevant as his presence has been all season, and he contributed one catch in the loss.

Carolina 10, San Francisco 9

Kaep wondering where his mighty wings went
(Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)

Cam Newton and the Panthers escaped with the win in San Francisco and made a statement to the league in the process. The Panthers defense smothered the 49ers, holding the offense to 151 total yards and sacking Kaepernick six times. The 49ers converted just 2 of 13 third downs and only entered the red zone once on the day. They settled for a field goal and would not score again.

Meanwhile the Panthers, at 6-3, are now tied with the 49ers, but surpass them in the wildcard standings with the head-to-head victory. If the season ended today, last year's NFC champs would enter as the lowest seed. After the loss at home coming off their bye-week, the 49ers should take nothing for granted.

Denver 28, San Diego 20

At this point, Manning's stat-line of 330 and 4 TDs seems about average. The Chargers rallied from down 28-6, but were unable to surpass the highest scoring offense in the league.

With 28 points, Denver's offense fell two points short of what would have been an NFL record. Instead, their streak of 30+ point games ended at 8, tied with the 2007 Patriots and Kurt Warner and the "Greatest Show on Turf". Both of those teams went on to make the Superbowl-- the Rams won their appearance but Brady/Belichick fell short of perfection (David Tyree!!).

Houston 24, Arizona 27

Houston dropped its seventh straight game on Sunday in Arizona. It's hard to believe that this team was a Super Bowl favorite by many when the season opened. The Texans were again hampered without Arian Foster, but this will not change any time this year: the RB will undergo season-ending back surgery soon. I hope you did not buy any of his stock. 

Meanwhile the Cardinals have quietly assembled a winning record. At 5-4, with five beatable teams upcoming, they increase their playoff stock dramatically over the next few weeks. Currently they are just one game back of a wildcard berth. They will need to stockpile as many wins as they can-- their final two games are in Seattle and home against the 49ers. 

Dallas 17, New Orleans 49

*Sunday Night*
Drew Brees started the game 3-5 on the opening drive before stalling around midfield. He then went on to complete 19 consecutive passes on the way to four first-half touchdowns, and the Saints routed the Cowboys in the Superdome. He would finish with 392 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Just another day at the office (Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

The Cowboys were down big from the start and tried to pay catch-up for most of the game, but Romo could not keep pace with the former Super Bowl MVP. Brees and the Saints' offense moved at will for the entire game, racking up a franchise record 625 total yards of offense and setting an NFL record with 40 first downs.

The Dallas defense lost starting linebacker Sean Lee to a hamstring injury, but wasn't exactly steadfast when the defensive captain was present, either. However, Dallas will need to find a way to win without him if they hope to make the playoffs; their division lead has vanished and they are now tied with the streaking Eagles at 5-5.

Washington 27, Minnesota 34

*Thursday Night*
The Vikings earned their first victory at home this season by holding on to defeat Washington. The 'Skins lead grew to 13 when they managed a FG on the opening drive of the second half, but they would not score again, and the Vikings rallied to score 20 unanswered points to close the win. Washington falls to 3-6.

A strong performance from QB Christian Ponder was soured when he left the game with a dislocated shoulder. Ponder's recent strong play has led to him emerging as the leader of Minnesota's three-headed QB monster, but after the setback it is back to the drawing board for the Vikings. The good news: its not like they have anything left to lose.

Miami x, Tampa Bay y

*Monday Night*
The Miami Jonathan Martin's traveled to across the state to face the winless Buccaneers. There were some good plays, by both teams, but ultimately, the win by the Florida team was largely ignored and discarded in favor of the looming decisions on the Incognito scandal.

Week Ten Pick-Em

Week Ten Pick-Em

Despite this picture, I'm taking Stafford, Calvin Johnson and the Lions over the Bears (Walter Iooss Jr./SI)

(my picks in CAPS)

Revisited in Italics

Early Games

DETROIT at Chicago
Young Matt Stafford has thrown for 845 yards and 8 touchdowns in the last TWO games. He also has Megatron. They face a team that allows over 28 points a game, and they will get the W.

Detroit only scored 21, but did get the win. 1-0!

SEATTLE at Atlanta
Roddy White returns! Why-- to provide a decoy for Harry Douglas? Atlanta continues its offensive futility against one of the best defenses in the league. I'm predicting 55 rushing yards from S-Jax in the loss.

White grabbed one catch on the day, while Jackson was held to ELEVEN yards. Not even I could have foreseen THAT pitiful output. 2-0! 

Philadelphia at GREEN BAY
Green Bay will look sketchy without Rodgers but will be carried by Eddie Lacy to victory. Foles 275, 3 TDs, and 2 pics in the loss.

Foles threw for over 200 and his 3 TDs, but no pics meant no victory for the Packers. 2-1.

Jacksonville at TENNESSEE
... Don't really have much to say about this game...

Nor do I now. 2-2. 

St. Louis at INDIANAPOLIS
Mark Schlereth called this a "get-right" game for the Colts, and I think they will in the win over the Rams. But if I'm the Colts, I'm more interested in how I measure up against an emerging star, Zach Stacy, than I am with beating a last-place team.

"Get right" the hell out of here if you're telling me you saw this one coming. Colts smashed at home by the Rams and Tayvon Austin. 2-3.

BUFFALO at Pittsburgh
The return of EJ Manuel will go well enough for an ugly win against an ugly team. They may be used to ugly football in Pittsburgh, but this isn't the good kind of ugly.

Correct: "ugly". Incorrect: Steelers win. 2-4.

CINCINNATI at Baltimore
Baltimore has not run the ball well this season, and will not improve their efforts against a stingy Bengals defense. The Ravens defense has not impressed either. Andy Dalton and the Bengals will prove their dominance in the AFC North by showing up the Ravens this Sunday.

The Bengals only proved I know nothing about football. 2-5.

Pryor will make some big plays on Sunday (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Afternoon Games

OAKLAND at New York Giants
Oakland bounces back against a struggling Giants team. Eli goes down while Pryor goes downfield, and Oakland wins on the East Coast for the first time since 2009.

The Raiders furthered that sentiment. 2-6.

Carolina at SAN FRANCISCO
As much as I'd like to see the upset, I see the Niners emerging with the victory on Sunday. I think the Panthers' defense will contain Kaepernick and the run game, but a rested San Francisco team will grind out the win.

The only reason I didn't is because I didn't want to jinx it. Big ups to the Panthers for playing great on the road against the rested 49ers. 2-7.

Houston at ARIZONA
In this week's "feel-good" pick, I'm taking the Cardinals because I "feel good" about them. I haven't thought much about their efforts all year, but they are still 4-4, and at home against a struggling team, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

Feelin' good! Or at least better. 3-7!

DENVER at San Diego
San Diego's offense has looked good recently (except when it hasn't), and Denver's defense has been spotty at times. But I see an unimpeded Denver offense and a lot of interceptions as Rivers tries to keep pace with Peyton Manning.

Easy pick, tho it was closer than I expected. SD falls 28-20. 4-7!

Sunday Night

Dallas at NEW ORLEANS
Drew Brees at home against the 31st ranked pass defense in the league? Tony Romo in a nationally televised game with serious playoff implications? The return of DeMarcus Ware will be irrelevant and the Saints will be the brighter stars on Sunday Night Football.

Poor Tony Romo. 5-7!

Monday Night

Miami at TAMPA BAY
Yes, I'm taking the winless Bucs! They have had some close losses this season and played better than I expected last Sunday, even though they blew the game. I see a Dolphins team too distracted by the Jonathan Martin saga, but I don't blame them. Everyone else certainly is.

Bucs won a game! It was sometime in between Tirico interviewing the Dolphins owner about Martin and Lisa Salters asking Philbin about Incognito. So that counts as a win for me. 6-7! 

The New Slim Shady

Will the Real Nick Foles Please Stand Up?

Philly's new gunslinger? Or one-hit wonder? (Brian Bahr/Getty Images)

Never heard of Nick Foles? You must have missed the Raiders game last Sunday. What I'm saying is, you wouldn't be alone.

The Philadelphia QB is turning heads due to a recent performance in Oakland, and for good reason. On the day, Foles tied an NFL record by throwing seven touchdowns in the game to go with over 400 yards and a perfect passer rating of 158.3. The feat solidified his name on a list with Y.A. Tittle, George Blanda, and Peyton Manning, among other NFL greats.

It was only his 9th NFL start.

So how did Nick Foles, in his second-year out of Arizona, end up in a cohort that, between them, has earned 8 championships, 13 MVPs, and 2 Hall of Fame inductions? (3 if you count Manning's eventual entry.)

Where does he rank on that list of legends? Is he the answer in Philadelphia? In a weak division, can the Eagles rally and make a push for the playoffs under his leadership? And, oh yea... who is Nick Foles again?

I'm glad you asked.

Hi! My name is (tcka tcka) Nick Foles
(Yong Kim/Philly.com)

Foles started at QB for over two seasons in college and amassed a career record of 17-18. That's wins and losses, not passes completed and attempted. He led the Arizona Wildcats to two bowl berths (both losses) in which he threw 4 interceptions and only one touchdown. His QBR in those two games: 31.5 and 1.4.

He was drafted by the Eagles in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft and made his first appearance in relief of a concussed Michael Vick in Week 10 of last season. The coaching staff felt he was more effective than Vick, and Foles went on to start the next six games. He went 1-5.

This year, Andy Reid is out, Chip Kelly and his high-flying offense are in, but things remain pathetically similar in Philadelphia. A 1-3 start put Vick's starting job on the line again. According to the press release, an injured hamstring forced the 33-year-old from the game against the New York Giants, and for the second straight year, Nick Foles entered in relief.

This year, however, he won. Not only that, but he won the next week, too. Impressively. In his first start this year Foles threw for 296 yards and 3 touchdowns, with no interceptions.

The following week against Dallas, Foles went 11 for 29 with only 80 yards and no touchdowns before being knocked from the game with a concussion.

Chip Kelly was again forced to consider his QB dilemma. Vick's hamstring was iffy and third-string QB Matt Barkely had committed four turnovers in his first four possessions, so there were not many other options. Still many felt like Foles earned the job due to his strong performances against... winless teams.

So when he was medically cleared to return, the Eagles tabbed Foles as the starter and put the ball in his hands. They faced Oakland that week.

The rest is history.

(Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

The annihilation of the Raiders brought Nick Foles' record as an NFL starter up to 3-6. It was his first win to come against a team other than the Buccaneers.

He has not always had the support of a great team around him: the Eagles are 8-17 since he joined the team in 2012. But he himself has not exactly been consistent. In his three wins, he has thrown 14 touchdowns, with zero interceptions, and enjoyed a passer rating of 122.2. But in his six losses, he has equaled his 5 touchdowns with 5 pics, and amassed a rating of just 68.25.

So who is the real Nick Foles?

The simple answer is: the starting quarterback of the Philadelphia Eagles for this Sunday. Coach Chip Kelly declined to comment beyond that. If Nick Foles has an idea of keeping the role when Vick is healthy again, he needs to stand up and prove that last week's record-setting performance was no fluke.

So Nick Foles, the real Nick Foles, please stand up, and show us all who is just imitating.

Or you just might lose yourself, and your job.